Information aggegration

  • https://arxiv.org/pdf/2106.11248.pdf short: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ztmBA8v6KvGChxw92/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions#Designing_collaborative_scoring_rules

Combinatorial markets

What are they?

  • http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/12/22/what-is-and-what-good-is-a-combinatorial-prediction-market/

How do they help?

  • discrete time helps people who can’t be awake 24/7 updating immediately on everything
  • need to balance
    • using markets to gain insight
    • keeping forecasters from just copying the median (this can either be done by discretising time or real money markets where people without new information (=an edge) just don’t trade)