Examples of beating the market

  • https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybQdaN3RGvC685DZX/the-emh-is-false-specific-strong-evidence
  • https://fantasticanachronism.com/2021/11/18/how-i-made-10k-predicting-which-papers-will-replicate/#

Bad incentives

  • https://arxiv.org/pdf/2106.11248.pdf short: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ztmBA8v6KvGChxw92/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions#Designing_collaborative_scoring_rules

Fixing some problems

Combinatorial markets

  • http://blog.oddhead.com/2008/12/22/what-is-and-what-good-is-a-combinatorial-prediction-market/